Durable kill point
The deferentially reviewed procedural gate at which a differently disposed judge is most likely to end a case in a way that will survive appeal.
First used in What Remains for the Judge When the Machine Has Already Verified the Law?
The concept rests on a fact about appellate review. Rulings at de novo gates, such as the pleading screen and summary judgment, are path-determinative but outcome-provisional: they impose real cost and delay, yet can be undone above. Rulings at deferential gates, such as discovery scope and enforcement, class certification, expert admissibility, remedy scope and findings of fact, tend to stick.
The Ariadne method therefore reports a durable Z, restricted to deferential gates, alongside the all-gate Z, and names the durable kill point. The consequence inverts a common intuition: the motion to dismiss, though earliest and most visible, may matter less to the appeal-proof outcome than a later discretionary ruling.
The durability pattern is itself stated as a conjecture (C-Deference), refuted if reversal rates prove equal across the two clusters of gates.